Lessons Learned from an Agro-Silvo-Pastoral Technology Transfer from Costa Rica to Cameroon

CHALLENGE
A World Bank-supported pilot project has demonstrated that several agrosilvopastoral technology innovations and systems developed and/or tested in Central America can be adapted to the Tugi (Gutah) Hills in the North West Region of Cameroon, resulting in the rehabilitation of degraded pasture lands, improved livestock productivity, increased income of the rural communities and reduced risk and vulnerability to climate change.

The challenge now is to capture some of the lessons learned during the course of the Tugi Silvopastoral Project (TUSIP), a piloted South‐South Knowledge Transfer Cooperation between the Tropical Agriculture Research and Higher Education Centre (CATIE), based in Costa Rica, and Akwi Memorial Foundation (AMF) - an NGO based in the North West Region of Cameroon, launched in January 2011.

For example, a gender mainstreaming component initiated in the second semester of the pilot to promote gender inclusion and avert the inherent gender-related “inequality of opportunity”, has demonstrated the relevance of incorporating village women groups, not only to participate in the implementation of agrosilvopastoral technology innovations, but more importantly to implement activities that respond more directly to their need for economic production and financial empowerment. The gender mainstreaming has created an environment for harmonious crop-tree-livestock integration whereby food crops, economic trees, and livestock are raised in association to promote the livelihoods of farm families.

APPROACH
The successful rehabilitation of degraded lands and the intensification of crop-tree-livestock production systems in the project area is key to securing sustained food security and other livelihoods for the targeted farmer. The agro-silvo-pastoral technologies and innovations tested in the project area will build capacity for the farmers and introduce them to environmental services and strategies to cope with climate change. The success of the pilot also hinges on the appropriate implementation of value-chain approaches to better articulate agro-forestry as one of the way farmers and their organizations will reach niche markets.  The 21 months of project implementation have generated concrete results from which lessons can be learned and disseminated for knowledge sharing, replication, and scaling up/out.

This activity will help:

• collect, collate, and document lessons learned from the pilot;
• and develop and implement a dissemination strategy that will convey the lessons learned to a wide and diversified group of stakeholders. This information will be useful to guide future south-south knowledge transfers that involve the grassroots and to explore potential donors for scaling up the pilot program.       

RESULTS
This activity is ongoing. Findings will be shared on this page when they become available. 

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Author : World Bank
Last Updated : 06-16-2024

Knowledge Sharing for REDD Activities in Latin America and the Caribbean

South-South cooperation and knowledge sharing for REDD activities in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

CHALLENGE

The World Bank assists developing countries in their efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) through loans and grants, including the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. The Facility helps countries arrive at a credible estimate of their national forest carbon stocks and sources of forest emissions, define their baseline scenario, and develop a strategy to reduce emissions that takes into account country priorities and constraints.

A forum for sharing ideas and experience among countries in Latin America and the Carribean as they go through this readiness process is helping address technical issues and develop collective expertise that promotes better REDD outcomes.

APPROACH

PROFOR helped finance a series of participatory workshops organized by the Bank's Latin America and Caribbean region to improve the REDD readiness process in participant countries. 

RESULTS

The World Bank's LAC region held a two-day workshop focusing on contributions from Mexico to the REDD iniatitive on April 26-27, 2010 in Washington DC. The event brought together over 100 development practitioners and civil society organizations working primarily in Latin America and the Caribbean, Nepal and Congo (in person and by videoconference) to learn from Mexico’s extensive community forestry experience. About 65% of the forests in Mexico are owned collectively and about half of the country’s 13 million forest-dwelling people live below the poverty line. Efforts to mitigate climate change through REDD+ schemes in Latin America, where land use change and deforestation contribute most to climate change, will need to build on these local communities.

Speaking at the event, Nobel Laureate Elinor Ostrom emphasized the links between local actors and global public goods, stressing the importance of local community participation in the management of forests:

Dra. Elinor Ostrom.

More findings and workshop presentations from the April 2010 workshop are available on the follwoing website: http://www.forestandclimate.info/Mexico/Inicio.html

This workshop was followed by a second meeting in Cartagena, Colombia in May 2010 at which Latin American and Caribbean countries supported by the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility shared experiences and practical advice on preparing national REDD strategies and readiness plans.  Some of the key themes included:  measuring, reporting, and verification (MRV) and reference levels for REDD, incorporating environmental and social issues into the readiness process, consultation and participation processes, and linking current mechanisms for payment for environmental services programs to REDD.  The event highlighted good practices for engaging multiple-sectors when formulating an R-PP and for developing institutional and policy frameworks to support a future REDD mechanism.

The event also clarified necessary financial considerations that are needed for the implementation of a sound REDD readiness program. The workshop strengthened regional cooperation and identified technical leaders on specific issues, e.g., MRV (leaders: Mexico and Costa Rica), using a nested approach to implementing REDD (Leader: Peru), and conducting consultation (Leader: Colombia). Continued dialogue and access to information is provided through websites associated with this activity (Presentations and participant lists are available online mainly in Spanish). 

A third workshop in Salta, Argentia in October 2010. was coordinated with other financial sources and additional workshops are being proposed.
 

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Author : World Bank in Latin American and the CaribbeanForest Carbon Partnership Facility
Last Updated : 06-16-2024

Integrating Ecosystem Services into Forest Land Use Planning in the Philippines

CHALLENGE

The Philippines is committed to a comprehensive reform agenda for climate adaptation and resilience, with a strong focus on increasing forest cover. The Government’s flagship National Greening Program (NGP) aims to reforest 1.5 million hectares of land between 2011 and 2016. With PROFOR support, the Philippines and the World Bank are undertaking a study to better understand the roles that forests ecosystem services play in poverty reduction and enhancing climate resilience. Preliminary results demonstrate the importance of forests in providing benefits for subsistence and cash incomes, and in regulating water flows in the dry season, flood waters in the wet season, and erosion and sediment control.

In the second phase of the NGP, the Government of the Philippines is interested in building on these study results by integrating poverty reduction and climate resilience objectives into forest land use (FLU) planning processes. However, this is a new focus area within the Philippines’ forest planning process. Government staff and other stakeholders need greater capacity to integrate climate resilience and ecosystem services objectives into FLU plans. This activity aims to strengthen that capacity.

APPROACH

In order to enhance the capacity of stakeholders, this activity will include:

• Holding a workshop to solicit recommendations from stakeholders on how the results from the previous study can be used to improve the FLU process. This will also be an opportunity to better understand stakeholders’ needs and expectations with respect to forest management.
• Developing a background paper on the value-added of integrating ecosystem services approaches in forest and land use planning.
• Conducting a desktop review of the FLU process and assess those under implementation.
• Reviewing international practices on integrating poverty and climate resilience concerns into forest development planning, to draw out lessons and best practices.
• Holding a consultation workshop government partners, development partners that have been involved in forest development in the Philippines, and civil society.
• Organizing training workshops on how to incorporate poverty and climate resilience considerations into the FLU planning process.
• Organizing learning workshops within the pilot municipalities.
• Disseminating results.

RESULTS

This activity is ongoing. Findings will be shared on this page when they become available.

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Last Updated : 06-16-2024

Institutional Analysis and Landscape Level Planning Guidelines for Watershed Development in India

CHALLENGE

Improved watershed management will be crucial to meet growing food demand in India, for example by: recharging local aquifers and improving downstream water flows; decreasing soil erosion; increasing agricultural productivity; and helping farmers adapt to climate change. Experts believe that an additional 102 million tons of food grains need to be produced annually by 2020 to meet national nutritional needs under moderate population growth forecasts, 38 million tons of which will need to come from either rainfed lands or imports.

However, rainfed regions have lagged far behind and have experienced severe resource degradation due to inappropriate land use, poor husbandry and low investments. Longer-term climate change adds another worrying dimension. Climate change requires new adaptation measures by farmers, especially small and marginal farmers who are the most vulnerable to these forecast impacts.

The Integrated Watershed Management Program (IWMP), financed through the Department of Land Resources, currently forms the cornerstone of the Government of India's support to watershed development, covering 27 states and proposing to invest over US$6.6 billion through a 10-year period to 2017. Besides the IWMP, a number of other centrally financed schemes are related to watershed management, agriculture and rural livelihoods, which to varying degrees address development needs in rainfed areas. The IWMP has been slowly rolling out and expanding its reach across India since 2009. But, it has not delivered expected results evenly across the country or to the desired levels. In moving forward to improve the IWMP model and execution, a number of key issues outlined recently by the Planning Commission and various other reports/experts have been identified.

Two key issues are:

              Fragmented programming and partial solutions. Given their ecological characteristics, developing rainfed areas requires a broad watershed approach. Large budgets are now available for IWMP and several other schemes for the development of rainfed areas within the Ministry of Rural Development. However, each of these is conceived and implemented in departmental silos without unified mechanisms for coordination and convergence. As a result, these programs do not lead to area development, potential synergies are lost, and investments, interventions, and results remain sub-optimal.

              Narrow planning scale. The IWMP is executed through clusters of micro-watersheds (each usually 500 ha to 700 ha) covering an average of 5,000 ha. This scale is appropriate for participatory planning and implementation communities. However, a larger landscape assessment/planning framework ranging up to 25,000 ha is also needed where broader land and water issues can be identified, and a more coordinated approach developed to converge government schemes with the IWMP. The current IWMP model also does not fully incorporate surface and groundwater assessments into management and monitoring activities to guide integrated planning at sub-watershed and micro-watershed scales.

APPROACH

This activity aims to address some of the issues above by helping to:

• Improve intra- and inter-ministerial convergence in watershed management in India;
• Develop landscape level catchment assessment/planning methods and guidelines for India; and
• Disseminate knowledge on good practices in watershed management building on a draft report prepared under a previous PROFOR activity.

RESULTS

The activity was successfully completed. The final report “Catchment Assessment and Planning for Watershed Management” is now available to the left along with a summary report. A launch workshop was held in Washington, D.C., in October 2014. A similar workshop was held in Delhi in December 2014. One article based on this work was published in a national journal in India. In addition, the “Operational Guidelines for Benchmarking Watershed Management Outcomes” prepared by the Ministry of Rural Development of India and the World Bank discussion paper “Watershed Development in India: An Approach Evolving through Experience” can be downloaded from this page.

Some key insights and lessons are:

• Micro-watersheds are the appropriate scale for program implementation with communities, with guidance by larger scale catchment assessments.
• Decentralized and participatory development is a necessary approach for success.
• Invest in participatory, evidence-based micro-watershed plans with communities.
• Invest in capacity building and information sharing to build sustainability and a body of knowledge.
• Invest in comprehensive monitoring and evaluation (M&E) to track implementation and support management.

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Author : World Bank
Last Updated : 06-16-2024

Improving social inclusion in debate on REDD+ benefit-sharing in Brazil

CHALLENGE

To control and reduce deforestation in the Amazon, the Brazilian government created the National REDD+ Strategy (NRS), which has provided a framework to compensate entities protecting the Amazon along a jurisdictional scale (states). In 2015, to support the coordination and implementation of the NRS, the Brazilian Government established the National Commission for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, Conservation of Forest Carbon Stocks, Sustainable Management of Forests and Increase in Carbon Stocks Forestry - REDD + (CONAREDD). Representing federal, state and municipal governments as well as local and civil society organizations, CONAREDD has worked to advance dialogue and cooperation amongst the various stakeholders and members. However, certain representatives of society, including indigenous people, smallholders, and traditional communities are still not fully included in the REDD+ debates. The process of how and to whom the benefits of Brazil’s NRS can be offered and allocated amongst the stakeholders of the Amazon forest states remains largely undetermined and un-informed.

Therefore, there is the need for a healthy debate about the alternatives for benefit-sharing mechanisms for REDD+ that reflects the interests of different social groups in the Amazon. PROFOR’s program seeks to engage with leaders of the Amazon and representatives of the states and federal governments to debate and devise options on benefit sharing that could support the NRS and the REDD+ initiatives of regional states.

APPROACH

PROFOR’s program will work closely with identified local organizations such as the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), a Brazilian NGO that will be leading many of the activities, to conduct the following:   

• Report on the current benefit-sharing mechanisms being used or proposed in Brazil;
• Apply PROFOR’s Options Assessment Framework with stakeholders during a series of workshops to obtain recommendation on the benefit-sharing mechanism to be applied to Brazil’s context;
• Develop an interim report based on stakeholder´s opinions derived from the Framework results;
• Conduct a final workshop to discuss the benefit-sharing mechanisms identified;
• Draw a best practice guide to implement the mechanisms identified during the workshops.

RESULTS: 

• The workshops participants  claimed a higher participation of the private sector in the REDD+ process,  as a way to reach more robust mechanisms, not only as direct beneficiaries of carbon sequestration but as protagonists in the management of financial mechanisms that can enable a cost-effective forest-based economy. The argument is that the governmental machine has many bureaucracy, lack of agility and lack of transparence that commits the implementation of REDD+.   
• Both national and subnational governments need to establish a closer dialogue with local actors, despite the dimensions, access difficulties and multiculturalism characteristic of the Amazon. This dialogue is key to improve their understanding of REDD+ and increase their participation in the whole process.  
• Communities, although they are the protagonists of the process, have a marginal involvement so far. A heavy and intense process of leadership strengthening, and capacity building is one of the key measures that needs to be improved. 
• The role of NGOs is fundamental in REDD+ initiatives. However, it is not their role to fulfill the obligations of the governments. Besides, NGOs need more resources to increase their capillarity and support more communities.  
• The public sector should incorporate the variables of private management in the management of funds. Funds should be managed by the private sector, NGOs or both together.  

• The states developed their REDD+ strategies and policies before the federal government. Therefore, a harmonized approach  between Federal and State polices will be necessary. Such approach include mutual recognition, equivalency, and reference standards 
• The consultations that are made to communities may not be valid since they can reflect better on their consent.     

• In a transition to incentive policies for the conservation of forests, the command and control approaches continue to be essential in the routines of environmental agencies. 
• Setting up a quality center for intelligence gathering and spatial monitoring is a critical, yet resource intensive task, requiring appropriate equipment and specialized human resources. Only through robust investments can states be able to monitor and deter illicit actions in a timely manner. 
• The technology does not replace the human capacity to read the images, especially in natural features that are confused with deforestation and degradation. There is a lack of human resources able to do this job, as well as to exercise command and control actions, once the situations in which they should intervene have been detected. 
• There is a major bottleneck in measures to detect and measure environmental degradation in relation to deforestation that needs to be observed. 

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Last Updated : 06-16-2024

Improving Rural Livelihoods and Sustainable Management of Dryland Forests of Eastern and Southern Africa

APPROACH

To support the development of a sub-Saharan forestry strategy that will outline the challenges and opportunities for developing forestry in the Africa Region, this study will look in greater depth at issues in the dryland ecosystems, building on existing programs and projects, literature, lessons learnt from the past while developing operational recommendations.  

RESULTS

This knowledge activity seeks to build on the valuable analysis conducted on policies, incentives and options for the rural poor in the Miombo Woodlands of Southern Africa, funded by PROFOR, by bringing in analysis from Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Botswana, Namibia and South Africa.

It will also go a step further to understand the impacts of climate change on the development of forests: while climate change scenarios predict limited change in average rainfall at the national level, across the sub-region far greater variability and less rainfall coupled with increased intensity of erosive storms are expected.  Such impacts are further exacerbated by ongoing and escalating environmental degradation and deforestation of these forests, and need to be better understood.

RESULTS

This activity is ongoing.  Results will be shared on this page when they become available. 

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Last Updated : 06-16-2024

Implications of the Changes in Agro-food and Fuel Prices on Rural Livelihoods and Forests in Syria

CHALLENGE
More than 60 percent of Syria’s poor people live in rural areas and more than half of these depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The country’s forests, which include 23 natural protected areas rich in biodiversity, also represent a significant source of livelihoods for rural populations.  But these protected areas are feeling the strains of overuse and degradation from human activity such as overgrazing, overexploitation of wood, and expansion of agriculture.

In this context of natural resource dependence, it is conceivable that the post-2006 increase in the prices of agro-food products has had a significant direct impact (through their influence on farming costs and revenues) and indirect impact (by affecting other potential sources of revenues such as tourism, and sales of handicrafts to tourists) on rural livelihoods.

But as yet, the impact of increased agro-food and fuel prices on farmers and on forest use is not clear. To the extent that a change in agricultural activities compete with forests, pressure on forests may have risen (eg. increased overgrazing).

APPROACH
In order to guide the World Bank and development partners' support to Syria’s natural resource management, PROFOR supported a knowledge activity examining the implications of recent changes in international and local agro-food and fuel prices on farmers’ welfare (and rural livelihoods more broadly) and on their use of forests. In response to requests form the Government of Syria, the analysis also addressed critical challenges facing the development of the rural sector in a changing climate.

RESULTS
This activity was closed in December 2011. 

• Robert Wilby of Loughborough University has produced a report with climate risk information by down-scaling historical climate data and projected climate scenarios for Syria at a detailed spatial scale for year 2030, 2050 and 2100.
• IFPRI was hired to produce an economy-wide impact assessment of climate change on the rural sector by integrating biophysical data in a general equilibrium model. A seminar was held with the State Planning Commission and NAPC on the economic modeling part of the CC analysis in September, 2010.  The discussion paper "Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria and Options for Adaptation" is available here.
• A World Bank Policy Note on Climate Change in Syria was submitted in October, 2010 to the State Planning Commission as input for the next 5-year plan.
• However, since February 2011, the political crisis in Syria has prevented World Bank staff and consultants from traveling to Syria. Therefore the qualitative field work, training and consultations planned under this activity were not undertaken. 
      

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Author : World Bank Middle East North Africa Region, IFPRI
Last Updated : 06-16-2024

Impacts of Climate Change on Rural Landscapes in Brazil

CHALLENGE
There is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture and forestry sectors are increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change (eg. a decline in productivity of subsistence crops in northeastern Brazil; increased risk of fire and Amazonian forest dieback). To meet development, food security, climate adaptation and mitigation, and trade goals over the next several decades, Brazil will need to significantly increase per area productivity of food and pasture systems in central and southern Brazil while simultaneously reducing deforestation, rehabilitating millions of hectares of degraded land for cropping and forest plantations in the Amazon, the cerrado, the Atlantic forest, and the Pampas.

However, because of previous climate modeling and data limitations, there was still significant uncertainty associated with the projections for Amazonian rainfall (timing, seasonality) as well as the magnitude and locations of climate impacts in Brazil over the next 50 years. Improved climate change impact assessments were urgently needed to guide policy makers on priorities, geographical targeting (hot spots), and phasing of investments for adataptation and mitigation to climate change.

APPROACH
This activity implemented by the World Bank in partnership with leading Brazilian agencies and supported by PROFOR focused on establishing a robust and integrated decision and policy support framework that could empower Brazil’s policy makers and the agricultural sector to undertake the adaptation necessary to cope with projected climate change.

Its objectives were:

• 1.To refine the available climate change projections for Brazil via the coupling of global, regional, and local scale modeling currently being tested by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE) in Brazil and the regional climate program for South America (CREAS).
• 2. To integrate the INPE and CREAS suite of tested global (300 km horizontal resolution) and regional models (50 km horizontal resolution) with the state of the art Brazilian developments in Regional Atmospheric Model (BRAMS) that incorporates aerosol and land cover/deforestation/burning feedbacks for much improved local weather and climate (especially rainfall) projections.
• 3. To make the Brazilian Agro-Eco Zoning Model that is currently used by the Central Bank of Brazil for rural credit programs "climate-smart" by integrating the high resolution climate projection outputs from 1 and 2.
• 4. To make the existing Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) climate-sensitive by coupling it with the outputs described above to assess: (a) Climate change induced changes in supply and demand of agricultural commodities at a national level, (b) Changes on the distribution of land use and production (agriculture, forestry, pasture) in Brazil for given supply and demand scenarios, and (c) Economic effects on agricultural and forestry production and profitability.

RESULTS
Projections for land use and forest land cover change, and an assessment of the distribution of land use and production were undertaken. Specifically, previous climate change projections were refined using a global, regional and local scale modeling; Regional Climate Change Scenarios for South America (CREAS) were used for regional and sectoral impact assessments; the Agro Climatic Risk and Vulnerability Zoning Model developed by EMBRAPA and UNICAMP was refined; soils were classified and cropping areas that are less vulnerable to climate change impacts were identified based on temperature effects through 2020 and 2030. A final report, in English and Portuguese, is forthcoming.

FINDINGS
The study showed that while for some crops (soybean and cotton) the projected negative climate impacts to 2020 are likely to be more moderate than previously projected, for other crops (beans and corn), however, the impacts could be significantly more severe than projected in previous studies. All the climate change scenarios simulated in this study resulted in a reduction of ‘low risk’ cropland area in 2020 and 2030.

More specifically, the findings suggested that the South Region of Brazil, currently an agricultural powerhouse, could potentially lose up to 5 million hectares (ha) of its highly suitable agricultural land due to climate change, while Brazil as a whole could have around 11 million ha less of highly suitable agricultural land by 2030. The findings of this study are being incorporated by EMBRAPA into the EMBRAPA/UNICAMP Agroecozone Model to improve the climate projections that underpin the national rural credit and insurance programs in Brazil.

Read the report in Portuguese.

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Author : A multidisciplinary and multi-agency team comprising leading experts from the Brazilian National Agricultural and Forestry Research Agency (EMBRAPA), the University of Campinas (UNICAMP) in Sao Paulo, the Brazilian Agency for Space Research (INPE), and the Brazilian Institute for International Trade Negotiations (ICONE), a major think-tank.Erick Fernandes, Adviser, Climate Change and Natural Resource Management, World Bank (Latin America and Caribbean), managed and oversaw the program.
Last Updated : 06-16-2024

How Forests Enhance Resilience to Climate Change

CHALLENGE
Developing countries are expected to suffer the most from changes in climatic patterns. The effects of climate change, including higher temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels and increased frequency of weather related disasters are bound to create risks for agriculture, food, and water supplies. International and national discussions on forests and climate change have largely been focused on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (REDD+).

Less obvious, yet equally important, is the role of forests in enhancing landscape resilience to climate change—for example at the scale of a watershed. Forests and trees provide environmental services ranging from increasing water quality and quantity in well defined areas, reducing soil erosion, creating micro-climatic conditions that maintain (or in some cases improve) productivity. The sustainable management of forests can also strengthen social resilience, by offering a diversification of revenue sources and product supplies, and building the capacity of local and national institutions.

Forest and tree management could provide a low-cost approach to enhancing resilience of local landscapes to climate change but needs to balance production, livelihood, adaptation and mitigation goals.

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Author : CIFOR, Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development, PROFOR
Last Updated : 06-15-2024

Forest Resilience for the Southern Amazon: Managing the Agricultural Frontier

CHALLENGE

Due to climate change, the dry-season length has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, resulting in a prolonged fire season. Major droughts in 2005 and 2010 significantly damaged the southern portion of the Amazon forest in Brazil and elevated fire-induced tree mortality in as much as 12% of the southeastern Amazon forests. These results suggest that feedbacks between fires and extreme climatic conditions could increase the likelihood of an Amazon forest “dieback” in the near-term. In addition, a recent study of human impacts on the integrity of the Amazon forest reported that a combination of selective logging and wildfires turns primary forests into a thick scrub full of smaller trees and vines, which not only stores 40% less carbon than undisturbed forests, but is also more susceptible to fires from adjacent farms and pasturelands than pristine forest. Forests are also under threat from the conversion to agriculture, particularly at the Cerrado margin, which has seen the largest expansion of medium and large farms, often linked to dynamic external markets.

APPROACH

The development objective of this proposal is to provide guidance to key local and national stakeholders on the design of policies and measures with the aim of maintaining the resilience of the southern Amazon forest in the face of climate change, increasing forest degradation, fire risks and associated greenhouse gas emissions, and increased global demand for agricultural commodities.

In the short-term, this activity will improve stakeholders involved in policy-making and implementation understanding of the dynamics between forests, agriculture and climate change, and resulting forest degradation and fire risks in a fragile frontier by key. In the medium term, it is expected to feed into the policy cycle by (i) establishing a sound set of potential impacts under different scenarios; and (ii) providing the basis for informed dialogue around increasing the resilience impact of policies and measures in the land use sector under the National Climate Change Policy.

The activity is composed of three tasks:

• Modeling of climate change, fire, forest degradation, and land use change dynamics in southern Amazonia. This will build on previous modeling work conducted by the World Bank in Brazil under the Low Carbon Country Case Study (Gouvello et al. 2010), namely SimBrasil and DINAMICA. The output will consist of a report outlining potential forest resilience impacts under different scenarios. The work will focus on the near to mid-term (2020) and complement the PROFOR supported study "Turn Down the Heat" that is focusing on medium- to long-term impacts (2030–2050).
• Policy options for managing the agricultural frontier. The output will include a report with recommendations resulting from the dialogue.
• Dissemination and knowledge exchange.

RESULTS

The simulations of future fire regimes indicate that the Southern Amazon is on the verge of a drastic tipping point from which the extent of areas burned in drought years may even double. This happens consistently in the four scenarios modeled after 2030, with and without deforestation. In other words, a temperature rise of just ≈1° relative to the current average (2010-2015) could trigger a series of large forest fires during the most severe droughts in the region. In those years, areas burned in the Southern Amazon could extend to over 3.6 million hectares, an increase of about 110% relative to the extent of the 2007 fires. In general, there is an increase in burned forest area from 17% to 41% after 2030 compared to 2002-2010. Although the results of the three models and four scenarios analyzed diverge from each other slightly, the trend is the same.

While the results of the simulations are inconclusive for years of normal rainfall, the advance of deforestation (at current rates) implies that an additional 7-16% of land will be burned between 2011-50 relative to scenarios with climate change alone. Although forest fragmentation plays an important role in facilitating fire spread, the results show that drought is the key determinant of the fire regime. This points to a virtually catastrophic effect of droughts powered by global warming, even in a scenario of robust climate change mitigation and a sharp reduction in deforestation rates.

In terms of geographic pattern, the southern Amazon is likely to be very heavily impacted, with some variation between the southeast and southwest depending on the different scenarios. In addition, high-intensity fires during droughts will be more extensive, implying higher mortality and consequent loss of forest biomass. From being a potential carbon sink, the Amazon forest will become a net source of carbon dioxide emissions, feeding back into global warming.

These dire warnings are crucial because they relate to an ecosystem of extremely high local, regional and global consequence. At the local and regional levels, fires in the Amazon are destroying valuable ecosystem services that communities depend on. The vast majority of agricultural production in Latin America depends on rain, meaning that disruptions to these systems will have profound negative impacts on livelihoods, jobs, health and nutrition, and wellbeing more generally. At the global level, it is very alarming that the Amazon forest may soon become a net emitter of carbon dioxide, rather than a potential carbon sink, contributing to climate change and further reducing the resilience of communities and ecosystems.

The final report identifies very feasible policy actions that can mitigate these negative impacts, including:

• Investing in fire prevention and firefighting capacity;
• Incentivizing alternative agricultual practices that are not based on fire; and
• Better land use planning to align agricultural producers and aggregators.

Implementing such policies is critical to conserving forests and biodiversity, ensuring the availability of ecosystem services and keeping people out of poverty, and ultimately to achieving global targets like the World Bank twin goals, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Last Updated : 06-15-2024